Relegation Race
By: Jeremy | May 19th, 2009With five matches to go, it’s time to start thinking about those teams that won’t grace us with their presence in the A next year.
Gimnasia (J) are rock bottom and only a miracle would keep them from direct relegation. At best they can rise to 18th and play the 3rd place finisher from the B. 17th place is out of the question, so the most they can hope for is a promotion play-off against the stronger of the two teams participating in the promotion play-offs from the B.
And by hope I mean they would need to pick up 12 points on Gimnasia (LP). Not likely to happen. Failing that, they would need to gain 13 points over San Martin de Tucuman. Stick a fork in them.
Gimnasia (LP) occupies the other direct relegation spot, but they only need to pick up 2 points to vault San Martin (T) into the first promotion playoff spot and then gaining 10 points over Rosario Central would see them to safety. They won’t make it to safety.
San Martin sits 18th, in the first promotion play-off slot, clinging to a one point lead over Gimnasia (LP) and trailing Racing (in the last safety spot) by 8 points. I’m thinking 18th is where the finish.
Central sit in the last play-off spot, a mere three points behind Racing, who lost a huge three points to San Martin last weekend. They are probably too far ahead of the teams behind them, so direct relegation is not looking likely. Worst case is finishing where they are at and playing the 4th place finisher from the B for the right to play in the A next season.
Racing Club hold a three point lead over Rosario Central with five games to play. They already played Central, winning 1-0. So they control their fate. I’m guessing Caruso Lombardi keeps them up.
Barring a complete meltdown, the team in front of Racing, Banfield is safe. They hold an 8 point lead over Central and 5 on Racing. There is probably the slightest bit of nerves going on there, but picking up any points will totally calm them down.
Everyone else is safe. While there are some mathematical possibilities left, the Moon, planets, stars and a few other things would all have to align, so no one else is worried.
The winner of this weekend’s match between San Martin and Gimnasia (LP) will most likely decide who gets the automatic drop and who faces a play-off. My gut says San Martin stay up, but what would the A look like with no Gimnasias?
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